Britain is not yet prepared for a full-scale war, the head of the UK’s armed forces has admitted, delivering a stark warning about the country’s military readiness amid rising global tensions.
Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, the Chief of the Defence Staff, told MPs that decades of underinvestment following the end of the Cold War have left the UK struggling to prepare for the kind of large-scale conflict it could face in the future, including potential confrontation involving Russia.
Speaking to the all-party Defence Committee, Sir Richard said Britain had benefited from a long “peace dividend” after the Cold War, but that comfort had come at a cost.
“Over the last 30 years since the end of the Cold War we haven’t been ready,” he said.
“We have taken a peace dividend and we are not as ready as we need to be for a kind of full-scale conflict that we might face.”
Russia tied down, but time is limited
Sir Richard suggested that Russia’s war in Ukraine, where Moscow is suffering heavy losses, may be buying the UK valuable time to rebuild its armed forces.
“There is a heated debate about when Russia might be ready to do something versus NATO,” he said.
“Right now they are fixed in Ukraine. They are taking an enormous number of casualties.”
He told MPs that Russia has well over half a million troops committed to the frontline, with estimates suggesting up to 1.4 million casualties, including reports of around 400,000 deaths this year.
“The risk position changes over time,” he said. “Our job is to ensure that our forces are as ready as they can be. We should be realistic about the threat that we face.”
Budget pressures and hard choices
Despite what Sir Richard described as the largest sustained increase in defence spending he has seen, he warned that funding constraints are limiting how quickly the military can adapt to new threats.
The UK defence budget currently stands at £62.2 billion, with plans for it to rise by £11 billion by 2027. However, he declined to comment on claims of a £28 billion funding shortfall, calling such figures “speculation”.
“My role is to advise ministers and the Secretary of State and the Prime Minister about how we rebuild our armed forces with the money that they have provided,” he said.
He pointed to preparations for possible deployments, including contingency planning to send troops to Ukraine, as adding complexity and uncertainty to defence planning.
“You heard the defence secretary say we are spending money on enhancing capability in case we have to deploy forces into Ukraine,” he said. “All of those factors add complexity and uncertainty.”
‘We can’t do everything at once’
Asked by Labour MP and former Royal Marine Fred Thomas whether the government would fund defence sufficiently to prepare for full-scale combat in the coming years, Sir Richard gave a frank response.
“I’ll be completely honest with you, we will not be able to do everything that we wish to do as quickly as we might want to,” he said.
“That is a matter for ministers and the trade-offs that they may make.”
He warned that earlier access to additional funding would make a tangible difference.
“It will make a difference,” he said.
Preparing for future conflict
Sir Richard, a Derbyshire-born RAF veteran and engineer who joined the armed forces in 1988, took up his current role in September last year. His testimony comes as the UK undertakes a major overhaul of its military, focusing on emerging threats from Russia and China.
Despite ongoing problems with recruitment and retention, it is believed the UK armed forces are aiming to be ready for full-scale conflict within the next several years.
However, Sir Richard refused to give details on how many troops might be needed to deter Russia, or to provide a security backstop for Ukraine after any peace deal, warning that such information could benefit President Vladimir Putin.
