Britain could face conflict on its doorstep within the next three to five years, the Armed Forces Minister has warned, declaring that “the shadow of war is on Europe’s door once more”.
Speaking at the Security and Defence Conference hosted by Chatham House, Al Carns said the UK must strengthen its mental and physical resilience in the face of growing instability across the continent.
Asked whether Britain was prepared for war, the former Royal Marines colonel said he believed the country would respond if required.
“There’s a requirement for greater mental and physical resilience,” he said. “But I actually believe this nation’s absolutely great and if it was called to respond I have no doubt that the nation would do so.”
‘The reality is it’s already here’
Mr Carns argued that conflict is no longer a distant possibility but a present reality.
“The reality is it’s already here. We’ve got 10,000 DPRK troops fighting and dying on the edge of Europe,” he told journalists, referring to forces from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Across the continent, he said, military planners are increasingly focused on readiness for the end of the decade.
“If you look across Europe, the planning timeline is ’29–’30. People want to be ready for that sort of space. My view would be a three to five years geographically constrained crisis.”
His comments come as the war between Ukraine and Russia continues to reshape Europe’s defence posture, with governments reassessing capabilities in light of rapid technological changes on the battlefield.
A changing character of conflict
Mr Carns said the Ukraine conflict had fundamentally altered the nature of modern warfare, particularly through the widespread use of drones and other uncrewed systems.
“I genuinely believe we’ve seen a complete change in the character of conflict,” he said.
“Whoever integrates uncrewed systems into the way we fight, or the way we fight into uncrewed systems, how the Ukrainians are fighting, will be best prepared for the next conflict, which will not look like the conflict that’s taking place in Ukraine.”
He highlighted the growing effectiveness of drone warfare, noting that “one or two drones equates to about 20 rounds of artillery” in terms of lethality and accuracy.
However, he cautioned that the pace of technological change presents its own challenges.
“By the time you buy that drone in eight weeks it’s already out of date because it is moving so fast,” he said.
Mr Carns, who retains the rank of colonel in the Royal Marines Reserve, said he wanted to apply a “slow is smooth and smooth is fast” approach to defence procurement, ensuring the Armed Forces acquire the right uncrewed systems at the right time, while avoiding mistakes seen during the early stages of Ukraine’s drone adoption.
Warning over EU defence fund
The minister also addressed the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme, an initiative designed to provide long-term loans to EU member states for ammunition, artillery and military drones.
He warned that excluding the UK from the programme would be “self-defeating”.
“The UK is absolutely essential to European security, 110 per cent it is pivotal,” he said.
“It’s the cornerstone of European security given its geographical position as an island nation. So to not allow it into a European defence fund is actually self-defeating if we’re talking about a threat potentially materialising in four to five years.”
Although no decision was made on UK participation last year, Mr Carns predicted deeper cooperation ahead.
“You’re going to see far greater collaboration moving forward because I think that is now really resonating,” he said.
His remarks underline growing concern within defence circles that Europe must accelerate preparedness as geopolitical tensions intensify, with Britain positioning itself as central to the continent’s security architecture.
