Washington’s dramatic military intervention in Venezuela may have sent shockwaves across Latin America, but its most lasting impact could be felt much further east.
Analysts say the US operation, which resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, is likely to embolden China to harden its territorial rhetoric over Taiwan and disputed maritime regions. However, they stress it is unlikely to accelerate any immediate Chinese military move against Taiwan itself.
Experts argue that Beijing will seize on President Donald Trump’s bold action as political ammunition, using it to criticise the United States on the global stage and challenge Washington’s claims to uphold a “rules-based international order”.
Opportunity for Beijing, Not a Trigger for War
While the strike has provided China with a fresh diplomatic opening, analysts say President Xi Jinping’s calculations on Taiwan remain driven primarily by domestic factors and China’s own military readiness, rather than US actions in Latin America.
“China’s timeline on Taiwan is separate from what happens in Venezuela,” analysts said, noting that Beijing’s decision-making is shaped far more by internal political and economic pressures than by overseas US interventions.
Still, Trump’s move has handed China what one analyst described as “cheap ammunition” to push back against US criticism of Beijing’s behaviour in Taiwan, Tibet and the East and South China seas.
“Washington’s consistent argument is that Chinese actions violate international law,” said William Yang of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. “But actions like this damage that position and create openings for China to push back in the future.”
China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, a claim rejected by Taipei, and asserts control over almost the entire South China Sea, bringing it into conflict with several Southeast Asian nations.
China Condemns US Action
Beijing moved swiftly to condemn the US strike, with China’s foreign ministry saying it violated international law and threatened peace and security in Latin America. Chinese officials have demanded the release of Maduro and his wife, who are currently being held in New York awaiting trial.
Just hours before his capture, Maduro met a senior Chinese delegation in Caracas, according to images he shared on Instagram. The delegation reportedly included China’s special representative for Latin American and Caribbean affairs, Qiu Xiaoqi. Chinese officials have not commented on the delegation’s whereabouts following the US operation.
China’s state-run Xinhua news agency described the strike as “naked hegemonic behaviour”, arguing that it exposed what it called the United States’ “predatory order based on US interests”.
Taiwan Under Pressure, But No Immediate Escalation
Taiwan has faced mounting pressure from Beijing in recent months. Last week, China carried out its largest-ever military drills around the island, effectively encircling it and demonstrating its ability to cut Taiwan off from external support in a conflict.
Even so, analysts say Venezuela is unlikely to become a blueprint for Chinese military action across the Taiwan Strait.
“Taking over Taiwan depends on China’s developing but still insufficient capabilities,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. “Not on what Trump did on a distant continent.”
Neil Thomas of the Asia Society said Beijing views Taiwan as an internal matter and would be unlikely to cite US actions in Venezuela as precedent for an attack.
“China will want to contrast itself with Washington and present itself as standing for peace, development and moral leadership,” he said, adding that Xi Jinping may instead hope the Venezuela operation becomes a long-term quagmire for the US.
Taiwanese officials echoed that assessment. Wang Ting-yu, a senior lawmaker from the island’s ruling party, dismissed suggestions that China might follow the US example.
“China is not the United States, and Taiwan is certainly not Venezuela,” he wrote on Facebook. “If China truly had the ability to do this, it would have done so long ago.”
Narrative Risks for Taiwan
Despite the lack of immediate military risk, observers warn the situation could still complicate Taiwan’s position. Some say it may increase pressure on Taipei to seek stronger backing from the Trump administration.
On China’s Weibo platform, discussion of the US strike trended heavily, with some users arguing Beijing should “learn” from Washington’s decisiveness.
Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Taiwan University, said Trump’s actions could ultimately strengthen Xi Jinping’s narrative.
“What this could do,” he said, “is help create more justification in the future for action against Taiwan.” Taiwan has yet to issue any official statement on the US operation in Venezuela.
