Could the Middle East be on the brink of a prolonged military confrontation?
That’s the stark warning emerging from Washington, as senior US officials suggest that potential strikes on Iran could last for weeks if diplomatic negotiations collapse, and as advanced fighter jets pour into the region.
US Air Force F-35As have been departing RAF Lakenheath, widely believed to be heading for the Middle East amid escalating tensions. Up to 18 of the fifth-generation stealth fighters are thought to have been deployed from the UK.
Speaking to Reuters, two unnamed US officials indicated that any military action against Iran would not be brief. Instead, it could stretch on for weeks should negotiations fail.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump, speaking after a visit to Fort Bragg, said regime change in Iran would be “the best thing that could happen”, a remark likely to intensify already fraught relations.
But it isn’t just aircraft being repositioned.
Mr Trump also confirmed that another US aircraft carrier is en route, widely believed to be the USS Gerald R Ford. The carrier has been operating in the Caribbean and has already been deployed for eight months.
Once across the Atlantic, the Ford could remain in the Eastern Mediterranean, geographically closer to Tehran than the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, which is currently in the Arabian Sea.
The Ford strike group brings formidable firepower. It includes three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, meaning there could soon be at least four destroyers in the Eastern Mediterranean, another in the northern Red Sea, and five more positioned across the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea.
These warships are armed with Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles. Their Standard Mark 3 air defence systems are capable of intercepting ballistic missiles outside Earth’s atmosphere, a critical capability if Iran were to launch missiles towards Israel or other regional allies.
The positioning of aircraft carriers also provides strategic flexibility. If regional nations refuse access to their airspace, carrier-based aircraft could fill the gap. Should both carriers move into the Arabian Sea, one could even transit the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf, placing US naval power significantly closer to Tehran.
That move, however, carries risk. Aircraft carriers typically prefer wide expanses of open water to maximise reaction time against missile threats. While US carriers do occasionally enter the Persian Gulf, doing so would bring them far closer to Iranian territory.
Below the surface, there is further strength. The US is also believed to have an unknown number of attack submarines in the region. Each submarine carries more than 100 cruise missiles and would play a crucial role in countering potential sub-surface threats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
The United Kingdom has also stepped up its presence. Six F-35 fighters have flown to Cyprus, where additional air defence and counter-drone systems are already deployed. The RAF has also positioned extra Typhoon jets in Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
And in a further sign of sustained Western naval activity, The Telegraph previously reported that an Astute-class submarine transited the Suez Canal on 7 February, heading south towards Australia.
With stealth fighters redeploying, carriers manoeuvring and submarines operating beneath the waves, the military build-up is unmistakable.
The question now is not whether tensions are rising, but how far they could go if diplomacy fails.
