The UK has warned that escalating Russian military activity and expanding Chinese interest in the Arctic and High North are creating fresh security challenges for Britain and its NATO allies.
Ministers and senior military figures told MPs that the security environment across the North Atlantic and Arctic regions is becoming increasingly complex, driven by a combination of military manoeuvres, cyber operations and strategic competition as climate change opens new routes and opportunities.
Giving evidence to the Defence Committee on 27 January, Defence Secretary John Healey said Russian activity around the UK and across the wider North Atlantic continues to rise. He noted that a previously referenced 30 per cent increase in Russian activity in UK waters should be seen as a broad indicator rather than a precise metric, but said the underlying trend was unmistakable.
Healey highlighted increased maritime movements, incursions into NATO airspace, threats to critical infrastructure, and the use of so-called shadow shipping as key signs of a deteriorating security picture.
Alongside physical activity, cyber threats were described as a major and growing concern. Healey told MPs that the UK had faced around 90,000 cyber attacks in the past year, with the majority assessed as being linked to state or state-backed actors.
“Cyber is now a central part of the threat we face,” he said, adding that Russia, China and Iran had all been linked to elements of the activity.
When questioned about the scale of Russian operations beneath the sea, both Healey and the Vice Chief of the Defence Staff declined to give detailed assessments, citing the sensitivity of operational information. However, they acknowledged that the level of threat had increased.
General Dame Sharon Nesmith said the armed forces were clear about the direction of travel. “We recognise the increase in the threat, and therefore the need for us to do more in the High North, whether at the surface or below it,” she told the committee.
She linked the response to ongoing changes within the Royal Navy, including efforts to speed up the delivery of new capabilities to match the evolving security environment. Part of that work includes the emerging Atlantic Bastion concept, aimed at strengthening deterrence and improving NATO’s ability to respond quickly across the North Atlantic and Arctic approaches.
Healey also pointed to the Northern Sea Route as an area of growing strategic importance. As melting ice opens up Arctic waters, he said the route is attracting greater Russian activity and increasing Chinese interest, adding new pressure to an already sensitive region.
“As climate change opens up the North, the Northern Sea Route opens up the link,” he said, noting that Russia’s closer alignment with certain partners since the war in Ukraine is also reshaping the balance of power in the High North.
