Could the world be heading towards a perfect storm of global crises, sooner than anyone expected?
That’s the warning from leading risk analyst Justin Crump, who believes early signs of a so-called “polycrisis” may already be emerging as geopolitical rivals look for opportunities to exploit global instability.
Crump, chief executive of intelligence and security consultancy Sibylline, says recent disruption around one of the planet’s most vital energy routes could be the first major signal that multiple global shocks are beginning to collide.
Trouble at one of the world’s most important oil routes
At the centre of the concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but hugely important waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas supply flows.
Crump pointed to Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping through the strait as a key warning sign. Recent tensions have already rattled global markets, with energy prices reacting sharply as uncertainty grows over the safety of shipping in the region.
Originally, Crump’s Polycrisis 2027 report predicted that several global crises could converge around 2027, creating a dangerous moment where economic, military and geopolitical shocks feed into one another.
One reason for that timeline is defence planning. Many analysts believe China could be ready for a potential operation involving Taiwan by that point, while the United States has also structured much of its strategic planning around the same window.
But events unfolding now could accelerate that timeline.
Crump argues that rival powers often act when they see the greatest opportunity, not when they are perfectly prepared.
“If we move now, it’s a time of maximum advantage, not readiness,” he explained, highlighting how adversaries may choose moments when their opponents are still building military capacity.
Defence spending debate intensifies
Growing instability has already triggered calls for faster increases in defence spending, particularly in the United Kingdom.
The UK has pledged to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027, while Prime Minister Keir Starmer has signalled an ambition to increase the figure to 3% during the next parliament.
Meanwhile, members of NATO have agreed to a longer-term goal of 5% of GDP on defence by 2035, split between 3.5% for core defence spending and 1.5% for broader security and resilience measures.
In comparison, Russia is estimated to have spent 7.3% of its GDP on defence in 2025.
Crump’s report warns that Europe’s military readiness remains a serious concern. In fact, he suggests European forces may struggle to confront Russia in the short to medium term without significant American support.
The danger of waiting too long
Long-term defence spending plans, he warns, could unintentionally signal weakness today.
If governments only reach stronger military capability later in the decade, adversaries might view the current period as a strategic window of opportunity.
Crump also cautioned that focusing too heavily on 2027 as a pivotal moment could actually encourage earlier action.
If multiple nations are preparing around the same date, rivals may decide to strike before those preparations are complete.
That, he says, is the very logic behind the polycrisis idea, several global shocks arriving at once, feeding into each other and shrinking the time governments have to react.
