Canada’s military has, for the first time in more than 100 years, begun modelling how it would respond to a hypothetical invasion by the United States, according to a new report, a move officials stress is purely precautionary.
The theoretical planning outlines how the Canadian Armed Forces would react to a potential US military incursion, including the use of asymmetric warfare, drone operations and appeals for European military support, according to two senior Canadian officials cited in the report.
Officials emphasised that a US invasion is considered highly unlikely, but said the exercise reflects a significant deterioration in relations between the two long-standing allies over the past year. A public opinion poll conducted this summer found that many Canadians now view the United States as their country’s greatest external threat.
Strained relations and Arctic concerns
Tensions have risen since Donald Trump returned to office last January. The US President has repeatedly suggested that Canada should become America’s “51st state” and has recently renewed his focus on what he has described as Canada’s vulnerability in the Arctic.
At the same time, Trump has openly pursued control of Greenland, a territory of Denmark and a fellow NATO member, arguing it is essential for US national security. The White House has indicated that several options are under consideration, including the possible use of military force.
Those comments have unsettled NATO allies, prompting France and Germany to deploy troops to Greenland. Canadian officials are also considering sending forces to the Arctic island.
Speaking in Switzerland on Tuesday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said:
“On Arctic sovereignty, we stand firmly with Greenland and Denmark and fully support their unique right to determine Greenland’s future.”
Carney last week also spoke of strengthening ties with China and contributing to a “new world order”, signalling what analysts see as a broader shift away from a US-led alliance system.
How Canada would respond
According to the report, Canada’s military planners believe any US attack would likely begin in the south, with American forces moving quickly to seize key strategic assets.
Given the imbalance in size and capability between the two militaries, Canadian forces would be unable to repel a conventional assault. Instead, the model envisages reliance on unconventional warfare, including sabotage, ambush tactics and drone warfare.
One official said the approach draws inspiration from the Mujahideen fighters who used hit-and-run tactics against Soviet forces during the Soviet–Afghan War.
“The aim of such tactics would be to impose mass casualties on US occupying forces,” the official said.
In the event of an invasion, Canada would also seek military assistance from allied nuclear powers, including France and the UK, the report said.
Retired Major-General David Fraser, who previously commanded Canadian forces in Afghanistan, said any attack on Canada would trigger a global response.
“You could actually see German ships and British planes in Canada to reinforce the country’s sovereignty,” he said.
Military cooperation continues
Despite the contingency planning, officials stressed that day-to-day relations between the Canadian and US armed forces remain positive. This week, the two countries conducted a joint NORAD exercise in Greenland.
Retired Lieutenant-General Mike Day, former head of Canada’s Special Forces Command, described the idea of a US invasion as “fanciful”.
Others argue that planning itself serves as a deterrent. Aisha Ahmad, a political scientist at the University of Toronto, said strengthening homeland defence reduces the likelihood of conflict.
“The better Canada can embrace this approach to homeland defence,” she said, “the less likely all of these horrible scenarios that nobody wants will ever come to pass.”
