The UK must urgently strengthen its defences and prepare the population for the realistic possibility of war with Russia within the next five years, the former head of the British Army has warned.
General Sir Patrick Sanders, who served as Chief of the General Staff until stepping down last summer, said the Armed Forces are too small to withstand a prolonged conflict and accused successive governments of failing to heed clear warnings.
“If Russia stops fighting in Ukraine,” he told reports, “you get to a position where, within a matter of months, they will have the capability to conduct a limited attack on a NATO member. That will happen by 2030.”
Sir Patrick, 59, stressed that the UK’s current level of military preparedness is not fit for purpose and that both the government and the public must wake up to the growing threat posed by Vladimir Putin’s regime.
“I don’t know what more signals we need for us to realise that if we don’t act now, and we don’t act in the next five years to increase our resilience… I don’t know what more is needed.”
‘Not Ready for Modern War’
Citing a lack of investment in bunkers, air defences and civil resilience planning, Sir Patrick said the UK is trailing behind European counterparts such as Finland, Estonia, and Poland, who have taken proactive steps to protect their populations.
“Finland has bomb shelters for 4.5 million people. It can survive as a government and as a society under direct missile and air attacks from Russia. We don’t have that,” he warned.
He criticised previous discussions with ministers, which often broke down over cost and the perceived remoteness of the threat.
“It always came down to it being too costly, not a high enough priority, or the threat didn’t feel sufficiently imminent,” he said.
By contrast, Nordic and Baltic nations have issued preparedness instructions to citizens, encouraged home bunkers, and promoted civil defence volunteering to protect critical infrastructure.
Underfunded, Undermanned
The British Army, Sir Patrick said, is “too small to survive more than the first few months of an intensive engagement”. Even with the reserves, he argued, the UK would struggle to mount a sustained defence.
The former general highlighted that the current plan to shrink the Army to 72,500 troops by 2025, its smallest size since the Napoleonic Wars, puts national security at risk.
“I joined an Army in the Cold War that was about 140,000 regulars, with a much larger reserve. The world today is as dangerous, if not more so, than it was then,” he said.
Sir Patrick added that UK air defence funding is “much lower than it should be,” and warned that resilience, the ability to recover from strikes and protect the civilian population, is dangerously lacking.
“These are no longer things that happen elsewhere. They could happen in the UK.”
His warning follows recent moves by the European Union to begin stockpiling essentials such as food, water, medical supplies, vaccines and fuel, in preparation for future crises.
With war still raging in Ukraine and diplomatic relations with Moscow deteriorating, the question remains: is Britain doing enough to prepare for what may come next?
